June 19, 2022
Sunday morning update
Happy Father’s Day! This will be a brief report since I’m leaving with my boys to go kayaking in the North Chesapeake Bay. There may be a little wind for us, and for you… again. We are in an unusual pattern formed in June. In fact, it brought snow to parts of northern New England.
We dug through this abnormally cool air mass. It can’t last forever, but it looks like he might be trying to hang on longer…
Morning surface weather
The high pressure directing this air mass is located in Ontario, Canada. Low pressure near Nova Scotia has combined to channel the winds towards us…but it’s better than cold rain near Boston and snow that fell on Mount Washington, NH and in northern Maine .
View from Mount Washington – It really is June 19
Lows fell into the 40s in the mountains, with many 50s including the Baltimore and Washington metros. The 60s were confined to bay locations near and south of Annapolis.
Staying pleasantly cool, yet cool in the shade.
Animation on the wind forecast from 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m.
Peak winds can reach over 30 mph, so the water will be choppy in the bay.
I’m going kayaking with my boys in the northern part of the Chesapeake Bay. I’ll tell you how the wind treats us.
Book your Kayak or Paddle Boat Adventure in the North Chesapeake Bay
TODAY June 19 (June 19)
Normal low in Baltimore: 63ºF
Record 48ºF in 1954
Normal high in Baltimore: 84°F
Record 99ºF 1994
Monday – Temperatures
Future Outlook: Tuesday to Thursday
A sharp change was seen on the GFS pattern from Wednesday. Instead of creating strong heat as we saw in yesterday’s forecast, it now looks like it is bringing back an Atlantic trough… Resulting in a band of rain on Wednesday which would translate to much cooler temperatures .
It’s a little more tame, but showed a similar (back up) Atlantic. We can observe this display of a broad backward (retrograde) low pressure shift toward the North and South Carolina coasts.
This would push back the heat in the central United States and give us a much cooler setup for the second half of the work week.
I left Wednesday and Thursday as “doubtful” just to see if this “downward pattern” holds over the next two runs of the model.
Hurricane Season Forecast: June 1 to November 30
NOAA Hurricane Forecast 2022 – Above Normal Again
Colorado State University Forecast
Atlantic Hurricane Forecast
NOAA study: Reduced air pollution INCREASE in tropical storms
Atlantic Tropical History: 10-Day Home Region Maps
Recent storm reports
May 22 Hail and wind damage
May 16 Hail videos and storm tracking map
*Disclaimer due to frequently asked questions:
I know there are spelling and grammatical errors. I’ve made a few public statements over the years, but if you’re new here, you might have missed it:
I’m dyslexic and discovered it in my sophomore year at Cornell. That didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington area.
I miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The automatic spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make matters worse.
All maps and information are accurate. “Word” stuff can get sticky.
There is no editor who can verify my work when I need it and have it ready to ship on a newsworthy schedule.
I accept this and maybe prove that what you read is really mine…
It’s part of my charm.