Father’s Day weather still windy then dubious midweek change

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June 19, 2022

Sunday morning update

Happy Father’s Day! This will be a brief report since I’m leaving with my boys to go kayaking in the North Chesapeake Bay. There may be a little wind for us, and for you… again. We are in an unusual pattern formed in June. In fact, it brought snow to parts of northern New England.

We dug through this abnormally cool air mass. It can’t last forever, but it looks like he might be trying to hang on longer…

Morning surface weather

The high pressure directing this air mass is located in Ontario, Canada. Low pressure near Nova Scotia has combined to channel the winds towards us…but it’s better than cold rain near Boston and snow that fell on Mount Washington, NH and in northern Maine .

View from Mount Washington – It really is June 19

Morning temperatures

Lows fell into the 40s in the mountains, with many 50s including the Baltimore and Washington metros. The 60s were confined to bay locations near and south of Annapolis.

Afternoon temperatures

Staying pleasantly cool, yet cool in the shade.

Animation on the wind forecast from 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m.

19-june-weather-wind-forecast-fathers-day

Wind gusts

Peak winds can reach over 30 mph, so the water will be choppy in the bay.

I’m going kayaking with my boys in the northern part of the Chesapeake Bay. I’ll tell you how the wind treats us.

Book your Kayak or Paddle Boat Adventure in the North Chesapeake Bay

CLIMATE DATA

TODAY June 19 (June 19)

Normal low in Baltimore: 63ºF

Record 48ºF in 1954

Normal high in Baltimore: 84°F

Record 99ºF 1994

Monday – Temperatures

Morning

Afternoon

Future Outlook: Tuesday to Thursday

It’s debatable…

RETROGRADING TROUGH

A sharp change was seen on the GFS pattern from Wednesday. Instead of creating strong heat as we saw in yesterday’s forecast, it now looks like it is bringing back an Atlantic trough… Resulting in a band of rain on Wednesday which would translate to much cooler temperatures .

SFP model

19-june-weather-rain-gfs

European model

It’s a little more tame, but showed a similar (back up) Atlantic. We can observe this display of a broad backward (retrograde) low pressure shift toward the North and South Carolina coasts.

This would push back the heat in the central United States and give us a much cooler setup for the second half of the work week.

19-june-weather-rain-ecmwf

7-day forecast

I left Wednesday and Thursday as “doubtful” just to see if this “downward pattern” holds over the next two runs of the model.

Hurricane Season Forecast: June 1 to November 30

NOAA Hurricane Forecast 2022 – Above Normal Again

Colorado State University Forecast

Atlantic Hurricane Forecast

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I know there are spelling and grammatical errors. I’ve made a few public statements over the years, but if you’re new here, you might have missed it:

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