New York Congressional Preliminary Card Slashes Dem Earnings

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New York’s redrawn preliminary congressional maps released online Monday would significantly reduce the number of safe Democratic seats drawn by the state legislature.

Why is this important: Democrats had relied on supportive Gerrymanders in blue states like Illinois and New York to offset GOP gains in key states like Florida. Although the new map of New York, drawn by a court-appointed cartographer, is not finalized, it would further destroy the Democrats’ chances of retaining the House.

  • The final maps are expected on Friday, pending public comment, but the map is not expected to change significantly, a Democratic staffer familiar with the process told Axios.

By the numbers: The map increases the number of competitive districts originally established by the Democratic-controlled state legislature from three to eight, according to the draft document.

  • District compactness is also an important goal, with more counties fitting entirely within a district. Split districts reduced from 34 on the original map to 15.
  • Republican House Rep. Nicole Malliotakis is particularly benefiting, as her Staten Island-based district is far less Democratic-leaning than what the legislature has proposed.

What we are looking at: The card has already caused several Democratic incumbents and candidates to alter their plans.

  • Representative Sean Patrick Maloney, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, quickly announced tentative plans to run in a district consisting mostly of Representative Mondaire Jones’ current district, where Maloney’s home was drawn.
  • Jones, however, would be in a district with Representative Jamaal Bowman, another freshman with an equally progressive profile, according to a Democratic staffer familiar with the cards. It’s unclear if they would race against each other or if Jones would race somewhere else.
  • Pat Ryan, the Ulster County executive who was rumored to be planning a run for Rep. Antonio Delgado’s soon-to-be-vacated district, instead announced plans running around the Maloney neighborhood, where his house was drawn.
  • Republican Marc Molinaro, the Dutchess County executive, says he will keep running in the more pro-GOP district of Delgado, although his home county was removed from it.

Another neighborhood with potential drama is the 12th district, which includes the Upper East Side and the Upper West Side of Manhattan.

  • That would put Reps. Jerrold Nadler and Carolyn Maloney, both senior Democrats who chair the Judiciary and Oversight Committees respectively, together.
  • nadler said in a press release he plans to run in the new 12th arrondissement.
  • State Senator Brad Hoylman says he’s “seriously considering” a race in the 10th Ward, which is currently Nadler’s headquarters but would now encompass downtown Manhattan and part of Brooklyn.

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