Population growth in the south and west will drive demand for new homes

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Migration patterns have changed or intensified in some parts of the country since the start of the pandemic. Some states are seeing a surge of new residents, taxing infrastructure due to rapid growth and increased demand for housing.

Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic, shared data at the 2022 International Builders Show this week in Orlando, Florida that shows where movers are heading. He said the states that posted the highest net population growth between 2020 and 2021 were Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia.

On the other hand, the states with the highest percentage net growth rate between 2020 and 2021, according to CoreLogic data, were:

  • Idaho
  • Utah
  • Montana
  • Arizona
  • Caroline from the south

Population growth in the South and Mountain West will drive demand for new homes,” Nothaft said. “Texas and Florida top the list and are the only two states to record six-digit population growth between 2020 and 2021, at 310,000 and 211,000, respectively.”

The top five metropolitan markets for new home sales between 2020 and 2021 were Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, Phoenix and Austin, Texas, Nothaft notes.

He predicts that between 2021 and 2030, the greatest population growth will occur in the mountainous regions of the west and southeast, as well as Texas.

The entry-level and homeownership market is expected to be robust in several southern and western states. Nothaft predicts that the states with the largest population increases by 2030 for people aged 20-29 will be: Idaho (15%), Utah (10%), Florida (9%) , Arizona (8%) and Texas. (8%).

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