Severe weather outbreak likely Monday in the northeast and mid-Atlantic

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There is an increased threat of severe weather in parts of the northeast and mid Atlantic on Monday. Image: weatherboy.com

An outbreak of severe weather becomes likely Monday for parts of the northeast and mid-Atlantic as a robust frontal system is expected to enter the eastern United States. The National Weather Service‘s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) said an area in the northeast will be at increased risk of severe weather tomorrow in its latest Convective Outlook report. Thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and destructive hail as well as the threat of isolated tornadoes will become a problem in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Maryland; Bad weather is also possible in Delaware, Connecticut, Virginia, North Carolina, Vermont, New Hampshire and Massachusetts.

Not everyone will see a tornado tomorrow, but those in shaded areas have an increased risk of tornado cells.  While tornadoes are possible in the green zone on Monday, the brown zone presents the highest risk of seeing them.  Image: NWS
Not everyone will see a tornado tomorrow, but those in shaded areas have an increased risk of tornado cells. While tornadoes are possible in the green zone on Monday, the brown zone presents the highest risk of seeing them. Image: NWS

According to the SPC, a vigorous mid-level trough is expected to move eastward across the Ohio Valley and into the northeast/mid-Atlantic region on Monday, acquiring increasing negative tilt over time. A very strong westerly/cyclonic flow will accompany this system, which will extend over the warm sector of a sharp cold front moving east of the Appalachian Mountains by midday and early afternoon. As the seasonal moist prefrontal boundary layer warms throughout the afternoon, the destabilization will fuel the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Due to the strong winds aloft, the storms will organize quickly, with some developing into fast-moving clusters. Along with the risk of hail, the destructive winds should become more and more widespread during the afternoon.

Additionally, low-level southerly and south-southeastward flow is expected, particularly from parts of Virginia northward to Maryland, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York; according to the National Weather Service, this improvement in low-level shear suggests the potential for a few tornadoes during tomorrow’s severe weather outbreak.

The risk of thunderstorms and severe weather will continue through the afternoon and evening until the front approaches and clears the coast.

Severe thunderstorm and/or tornado watches and warnings may be required for affected areas on Monday. People in these risky areas need to stay alert to weather conditions and know what to do in case of severe weather events long before they do.

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