The Senate 2022 map is becoming clearer

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WASHINGTON – If it’s Monday… President Biden is getting ready for his speech on voting rights tomorrow. … Senator John Thune, RS.D., decides to run for re-election. … Senator Mark Kelly, D-Arizona, raises $ 9 million for the quarter. … Texas Governor Greg Abbott has a new border-themed TV commercial. … And Clay Aiken is ready for a recall to Congress.

But first: With Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., Announcement on Sunday that he will run again after all, the Senate’s midterm card is now all but established.

We’ll be releasing our own notes in the coming weeks, but here’s where the Cook Political Report has it right now.

In a 50-50 Senate – where Democrats hold the narrowest majority because Vice President Harris is the tiebreaker – Democrats defend a total of 14 Senate seats, including three in the Toss Up: Arizona column (Mark Kelly), Georgia (Raphael Warnock) and Nevada (Catherine Cortez Masto).

Democrats took a hiatus last November when Gov. Chris Sununu decided not to run against Senator Maggie Hassan, DN.H., and that New Hampshire seat is currently in Cook’s Lean D category.

Republicans, meanwhile, defend a total of 20 Senate seats, including three in the Toss Up column – North Carolina (open due to the retirement of Sen. Richard Burr, RN.C.), Pennsylvania (open due from that of Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., retired) and Wisconsin (Johnson).

Two other Senate seats held by the GOP are in the Lean R category: Florida (where Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., Is running for re-election) and Ohio (which is open due to the retirement of the Senator Rob Portman).

So you have a total of six Toss Up races (each party defending three seats), three other Lean D / R races (with one in Lean D and two in Lean R) and two other races worth seeing (in Colorado and Iowa). ).

This is pretty much the map of the Senate that you are going to find. Biden won five of six Toss Up States in 2020, but by just 2 points or less.

Then again, the political environment – at least right now – favors Republicans, with Biden’s job rating in his 40s.

Tweet of the day

Data download: The day number is… 4

That’s the number of consecutive days that Chicago’s public schools have been closed amid a standoff between schools and the teachers’ union.

The country’s third-largest school district, like many across the country, is struggling to find a way forward amid a historic spike in Covid cases, with students caught in the middle.

The Chicago Teachers Union wants to temporarily switch to remote work and increase testing. But on Sunday’s Meet the Press show, Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot accused teachers of “giving up their posts” and said schools were safe.

Other figures to know today:

19: The number of people who died, including nine children, in a horrific apartment fire in the Bronx

50: The number of days until the State of the Union.

5 percent: The percentage increase in estimated greenhouse gas emissions in the United States in 2021 compared to 2019, an increase that a data company says means the country is behind on its 2025 targets and 2030.

Mid-term review

Senator John Thune, RS.D., announced this weekend that he was running for re-election, according to NBC’s Leigh Ann Caldwell.

American Idol finalist Clay Aiken is running for Congress again, reports NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell, becoming the latest Democrat to enter the race to succeed retired Democratic Representative David Price. (Aiken unsuccessfully ran for Congress in 2014.)

California Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom has set a special election to replace GOP Representative Devin Nunes on June 7, with a primary on April 5. All the candidates face each other in a primary ballot, with the top 2 voters qualifying for the June 7 election (unless one candidate obtains a majority of the votes).

Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Arizona, raised $ 9 million in the last quarter of 2021, ending the year with $ 18.5 million on hand.

In Pennsylvania, Democratic Representative Conor Lamb announcement transportation of $ 1.3 million in the fourth quarter and $ 3 million on hand.

Republican Chuck Morse, president of the New Hampshire State Senate, has decided to run against Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan, according to WMUR.

Texas Republican Gov. Greg Abbott presents a new TV spot featuring the Border Patrol Union leader praising the Republican, who faces a main challenge from several candidates on his right flank

And in Pennsylvania, GOP State Senator Doug Mastriano – who pushed to overturn the 2020 presidential election results – is running for governor, reports the Philly Inquirer.

ICYMI: what else is happening in the world

Politicians mourned former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid over the weekend.

The West is trying to present a united front as Russia continues to step up pressure on Ukraine.

After expressing concerns over New York City’s law to allow certain non-citizens to vote in municipal elections, Mayor Eric Adams let the measure become law on Sunday.

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