The chance of showers and thunderstorms is decreasing over the next few days as slightly drier air moves into the middle part of the atmosphere.
It will remain warm and humid, which is typical for Virginia in July, but the drier air at higher elevations will make it a little less conducive to blooming and surviving thunderstorms as they rise into the sky.
And while sweltering heat will hold back several states west of Virginia, a further increase in humidity will develop this weekend and persist into next week, keeping nighttime temperatures in the 70s.
This means that the chances of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening will also rise, and are a little better on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.
An updated analysis from the nonprofit Climate Central looks at average summer temperatures across the country, comparing them to estimates for the next 40 to 80 years if the current trend in greenhouse gas emissions continues. .
People also read…
Based on 23 versions of the latest generation of climate models, colloquially known as CMIP6the analysis uses the highest greenhouse gas emissions scenario for the rest of the century to make the estimates.
The results indicate that summer temperatures in Richmond 40 years from now will be more typical of current summer temperatures in Columbus, Ga.
By 2100, they will be about 7 degrees warmer than today, more in line with current summer temperatures in suburban Dallas.
The analysis was performed for over 200 cities across the country. You can see them all on the Climate Central website.
The amount of warming that actually occurs will largely depend on how we generate energy over the next few decades globally. A faster shift toward renewables and away from fossil fuels — oil, natural gas, coal — will slow warming.
For those looking for good news, the worst-case warming scenario envisioned a decade ago is unlikely to materialize.
This scenario is increasingly unlikely as natural gas continues to become more attractive than coal for power generation. While that sounds great, there’s still a long way to go to slow and completely stop global warming because natural gas also produces carbon dioxide when burned to generate energy.
Moreover, the warming of the climate system has already begun and its effects have already arrived. Virginia’s average temperature today is more like North Carolina‘s average temperature a century ago. Sea level rise on Virginia’s shores has already increased between 1 and 1.5 feet since 1950.