Like every year since 2015, a more active than usual hurricane season is predicted for the Atlantic hurricane basin, according to Colorado State University.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on Wednesday. This season, in an effort to ensure homeowners have what they need to be prepared, the National Hurricane Center announced that it has improved forecasts and access to information such as storm, hurricane and marine forecasts, as well as detailed geographic information.
“Early preparation and understanding your risk is key to being hurricane-resistant and climate-ready,” Commerce Secretary Gina M. Raimondo said.
ATLANTIC CITY – A massive and dangerous storm was heading towards the Jersey Shore on October 28-20…
Forecasts from the National Hurricane Center, AccuWeather and the State of Colorado call for a more active tropical season than usual. state of colorado predicts 19 tropical storms, nine of which will become hurricanes and four of these major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5). That’s above the 1991-2020 average of 14, seven and three, respectively.
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In addition to new forecasts for the season, the center, which is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and is responsible for all official storm tracking forecasts and weather alerts, offers a host of updates for 2022. updates include the latest forecast tracking error. cone for tropical systems. A predicted track error is the likely path the center of the storm will take, and improvements to this have increased the accuracy of the models from one to five days. This upgrade will give meteorologists more accurate information to predict storms.
The biggest improvement has been in the 36-hour forecast, where the cone will be 6% smaller than last year. As a result, the forecast cone range will drop from 55 nautical miles to 52 nautical miles, narrowing the target areas and giving people a better idea of their proximity to the storm. In general, a cone represents the range of possible strike zones. It becomes smaller as a storm nears landfall. Three hours before landfall, a cone is 16 miles wide, while five days before landfall, a cone would span 200 nautical miles.
While a 6% improvement may not seem like much, over the past decade these improvements have reduced the overall cone by 15% to 30%, leading to better predictions. For example, if Super Hurricane Sandy of 2012 were to occur this year, the models would have been better able to narrow the target area; 3½ days before landfall, the cone would have centered on a beach stretching from Asbury Park to the Virginia portion of the Delmarva Peninsula. At the time, the same forecast showed a landing range between Montauk, Long Island and the Outer Banks of North Carolina.
In addition to modeling improvements, the hurricane center is improving its online messaging with more detailed and segmented updates that can be easily understood at hurricanes.gov.
Another example of better messaging is storm surge forecasts. When storms approach the shore, the storm surge forecast will now color-code the amount of water above normally dry ground on its charts. This will bring additional aesthetic appeal to the experimental chart that was first released in 2020. Previously, coastlines that were supposed to receive storm surges were always red.
Storm surge watches or warnings continue to be posted with charts at 5 a.m., 11 a.m., 5 p.m. and 11 p.m., as required.
For sailors who go offshore, there will also be more accurate forecasts and new forecast areas in the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, and much of the Atlantic Ocean south of 31 degrees north latitude, roughly the border between Florida and Georgia.
The center’s Tropical Analysis and Forecasting Branch had broken down this area into 32 areas since 2011. Now, those areas will be transformed into 52 smaller areas, with eight new areas in the open waters east of Florida but at South Bermuda also added. , increasing accuracy.
This will benefit mariners with more accurate and better forecasts. The redeveloped areas also take into account the climate of that area. In the event of adverse conditions, the more specific forecast boxes will provide more information targeted to those who need it.
It’s officially hurricane season, here are the names of the storms for 2022
Click below to see Colorado State University’s hurricane season forecast
Martin replaces Hurricane Matthew, which was retired by WMO from the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season.
When is the peak of Atlantic hurricane season?
Owen replaces Hurricane Otto, which was retired by the WMO following the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season.
Here is the 2022 list in one graphic
If we pass Walter, here is the additional list of storm names
AccuWeather also predicts an above-average hurricane season, they told us
Expect another above average tropical season in the Atlantic Ocean and New Jersey will have to watch closely. 16 to 20 tropical storms, including 6 to 8 hurricanes and 3 to 5 major hurricanes are expected. Meteorologist Joe Martucci for a long time AccuWeather tropical expert Dan Kottlowski on the podcast to talk about it, growing up in rural Indiana and his map splits from the Garden State.
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